Note: Single-source report; awaiting corroboration.
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) completed a study in autumn 2023 indicating that increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would have a negligible effect on domestic natural gas prices and could modestly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. The emissions reduction was attributed mainly to LNG exports displacing coal in power production and substituting for natural gas exports from other countries, including Russia, according to a draft study shared with The Wall Street Journal.
The draft study stated, “The majority of the additional U.S. natural gas substitutes for other global sources of natural gas,” and noted that global and U.S. greenhouse gas emissions “do not change appreciably” across various modeled scenarios. Regarding prices, the study forecasted only a 4% rise in residential gas prices by 2050, less than projections from a 2018 DOE study on LNG export economic impacts.
DOE staff and legal teams rigorously reviewed the study’s models and findings to ensure accuracy, with recommendations to provide public transparency through full tabulated results. However, the study was reportedly shelved by the Biden administration, which announced a temporary suspension of LNG export project approvals in January 2024 to conduct a public interest study, despite the DOE career staff’s prior completion of the analysis.
In December 2024, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm released a different DOE study suggesting that “unfettered” LNG exports could increase global emissions and domestic prices. According to the report, the earlier staff study was not publicly available during the election period, leading to questions about the administration’s motivations for the export pause.