Note: Single-source report; awaiting corroboration.
A United Nations report from the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) states that while the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may provide crucial economic relief, developing countries are likely to face persistently high food and fuel costs. Although oil shipments are expected to recover following a ceasefire in the US and Israeli conflict with Iran, the report notes that supply chains, freight contracts, and food systems will take much longer to normalize, sustaining economic pressures in the meantime.
Efforts to ensure safer shipping have faced setbacks: Iran reportedly rejected a French-Omani proposal to remove mines in the strait and the International Maritime Organization's suggestion to establish a new shipping lane off the Omani coast. This resistance keeps risks elevated for international trade flows through this key waterway.
UNCTAD highlighted that vulnerable economies, particularly small island states such as Cabo Verde and Micronesia, face 'dual exposure' to shocks due to their heavy dependence on oil and food imports. About 61 vulnerable nations are affected by disruptions in oil and cereal imports. These countries typically have limited public finances, making it more difficult to absorb shocks and increasing the impact of trade disruptions.
The report also raises concerns about food security. Even short periods of unaffordable food in import-dependent nations can have lasting effects on child wasting—low weight-for-height. Data suggest a 5% increase in real food prices is linked to a 15% higher risk of child wasting among poor children, and a 26% rise among children in rural, landless poor households. This highlights the risk of acute malnutrition from sustained price hikes.
To address these challenges, the agency calls for increased international assistance to help developing countries manage higher import costs, mitigate food and fuel price shocks, and build resilience against future trade disruptions. The report warns these shocks may persist for months, disproportionately impacting developing nations.