Note: Single-source report; awaiting corroboration.
El Niño is strengthening rapidly in the Pacific Ocean, with forecasts indicating it could become very strong and peak by the end of the year, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The probability that El Niño will continue through February 2027 is nearly 100%, an unprecedented level of certainty from the UN weather agency.
Beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific, temperatures were recorded more than eight degrees Celsius above normal in some areas during July and early August, suggesting a large heat reservoir that could continue to fuel El Niño in the coming months.
Currently, the Niño 3.4 index, which measures ocean temperature anomalies in the central tropical Pacific, averaged 1.5°C above normal from May to July, reached 2°C by July, and peaked at 2.6°C in weekly readings from late July through mid-August. This signifies significant warming extending below the ocean surface.
El Niño is a periodic warming of central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters that influences global atmospheric patterns. While it occurs naturally every two to seven years, current ocean temperatures are already higher than usual due to climate change, which may intensify impacts such as heatwaves and extreme precipitation events.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres highlighted that the current El Niño is developing in “uncharted waters” and is “supersized,” emphasizing the interconnectedness of natural variability and human-induced warming.
Despite the intensification, a strong El Niño does not mean uniform impacts worldwide; regional consequences will vary. Forecasts predict above-normal temperatures across most regions from September through November.