Note: Single-source report; awaiting corroboration.
A report by the UK Met Office, released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), states there is an 86% chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will be hotter than 2024, currently the warmest year on record. It also finds a 91% likelihood that average global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels during this period, a threshold central to the Paris Agreement on climate change. While these temporary exceedances do not negate the agreement’s long-term goals—focused on sustained warming—they highlight the growing frequency of extreme heat events. Expected global temperature increases between 2026 and 2030 range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above 1850-1900 averages, with a 75% chance the five-year average will exceed 1.5°C. An El Niño event predicted for late 2026 may increase the chance of 2027 setting a new temperature record, according to lead author Leon Hermanson.
The Arctic is forecast to warm significantly faster than the global average, with winter temperatures over the next five years expected to be 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 baseline—more than three times the global increase. The report anticipates continued reductions in sea ice, especially in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk. Decreasing sea ice amplifies warming by reducing Arctic reflectivity and disrupts ecosystems, weather patterns, and regional livelihoods.
Shifts in global rainfall patterns are also expected with warming. Increased precipitation is predicted for the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia between 2026 and 2030, while drier conditions are forecast for the Amazon and parts of the subtropics. Higher northern latitudes are likely to see wetter winters in the coming seasons.