Note: Single-source report; awaiting corroboration.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts a strong El Niño event developing rapidly in the tropical Pacific between July and September, with sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2°C in affected regions. This outlook is based on multi-model forecasts from WMO partners, indicating a significant warming pattern over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
According to WMO scientist Alvaro Silva, El Niño typically leads to record global temperatures during its peak, usually between November and February. Silva noted the event will further increase global temperatures, heightening heat-related risks.
The climate outlook predicts varied regional effects. The United States is experiencing a prolonged heatwave, expected to continue into the Independence Day weekend. Europe has seen record temperatures in June, including a national high of 41.7°C in Germany. Drier conditions are anticipated in Central America, the Caribbean, and parts of Indonesia and Southeast Asia during the monsoon. Conversely, East Africa may experience wetter-than-normal conditions and possible flooding, partially influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole.
In response, the WMO and its regional partners have begun efforts to support governments with timely climate information. Silva emphasized the shrinking window for early preparedness and action to protect agriculture, energy, and water resources, especially in drought-prone regions.
El Niño and its counterpart La Niña are phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), known to powerfully influence global weather. The WMO urges countries to act promptly on the forecast to minimize impacts on lives and livelihoods worldwide.