Note: Single-source report; awaiting corroboration.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed with an 80 percent probability that El Niño conditions will develop between June and August, with a 90 percent chance thereafter. This signals increased risks of above-average global temperatures and more extreme weather events. The confirmation came during a UN briefing that stressed the need to prepare for the Pacific Ocean-warming phenomenon known for causing widespread climate disruptions.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo noted that El Niño affects global climate far beyond the Pacific, impacting agriculture, energy, trade, water resources, and livelihoods. Temperature readings in the tropical Pacific Ocean are currently about 6°C above average, raising concerns that the phenomenon could intensify and severely impact vulnerable communities. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the situation as an urgent climate warning.
The 2023-24 El Niño was among the five strongest recorded and contributed to global temperature records in 2024, according to Saulo. The WMO stated that while climate change does not appear to increase the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, warmer oceans and atmospheres may amplify associated extreme weather, such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
Ms. Saulo emphasized the importance of science and investment in preparing for El Niño, highlighting the need for advance forecasts and early warnings to protect economies and lives. The WMO is working with international weather agencies to monitor conditions and support decision-making for governments, humanitarian agencies, and climate-sensitive sectors.
El Niño is one phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, marked by warming of central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean surface temperatures. The phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months.