Note: Single-source report; awaiting corroboration.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) projects that approximately 2.4 million refugees worldwide will require resettlement in 2027, as many remain at risk in their current countries and cannot safely return home. While this estimate is a 6% decline from the 2026 forecast, UNHCR attributes the decrease to mixed realities on the ground, rather than widespread improvement in conditions for refugees.
In Syria, political developments since late 2024 have permitted some refugees to voluntarily return, despite ongoing instability. Conversely, the reduced resettlement needs among Afghan refugees in Iran and Pakistan are partly due to returns under difficult circumstances. Afghans are expected to comprise the largest group needing resettlement, followed by refugees from South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, and the Rohingya population, primarily in Bangladesh.
The highest regional resettlement needs are in Eastern and Southern Africa, followed by Asia and the Pacific, and West and Central Africa. UNHCR warns that resettlement opportunities are shrinking when humanitarian needs are still critical, leaving many refugees facing ongoing uncertainty.
In 2025, about 37,000 refugees were resettled through UNHCR-supported programs, down significantly from over 116,000 in the previous year. This number represents only a fraction of those identified as needing resettlement and is below the target of 130,000 resettlement places by 2027.
Jackie Keegan, UNHCR’s Head of Durable Solutions and Field Protection Support Service, cited policy changes in destination countries—such as pauses in admissions, stricter criteria, and processing backlogs—as reasons for the shortfall in resettlement. UNHCR stresses that expanding resettlement is essential to protect vulnerable refugees, ease pressure on host countries, and provide durable solutions for families unable to return safely.
Countries hosting most of the world's refugees, mainly low- and middle-income nations accounting for nearly 68% of the global refugee population, continue to call for greater international responsibility-sharing as local resources and services are strained. Ms. Keegan advocated for increased quotas, broader country participation, and faster processing to make resettlement a viable, life-saving option for more refugees.