Note: Single-source report; awaiting corroboration.
A United Nations survey of 1,300 participants from governments, international organizations, civil society, the private sector, and academia worldwide found that fears of large-scale war have surged to become the most significant global risk. The survey assessed 28 political, economic, environmental, societal, and technological threats by perceived likelihood, potential damage, and global readiness to respond.
Large-scale war climbed 16 places in the rankings compared to 2024, marking the steepest rise of any evaluated risk. Over one-third of respondents (36%) believe its effects could impact much of humanity within one year, with 76% anticipating this within seven years. It was the only risk to appear in the top six across all criteria: importance, imminence, interconnectedness with other dangers, and estimated institutional readiness.
This shift toward geopolitical and political risks is reflected globally. Large-scale war and geopolitical tension now feature among the top ten threats in every region surveyed and rank in the top five in six of the seven regions. Two years earlier, these threats appeared in the top five in only one region. Concerns about weapons of mass destruction also rose, entering the top ten risks in Central and Southern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Oceania.
Conversely, threats related to pandemics and biological hazards have declined sharply, dropping out of the top ten risks in all regions. These were previously considered more pressing in Eastern and Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
The survey highlights that no risk exists in isolation. Natural resource shortages, economic fragmentation, misinformation, and weakening multilateral institutions intensify geopolitical tensions, increasing the likelihood of widespread conflict. Among 705 identified interconnections between risks, the strongest link was between geopolitical tension and war. Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized the sobering nature of these findings and noted the perceived reduced capacity of institutions to manage these heightened risks.