Note: Single-source report; awaiting corroboration.
Six weeks after the outbreak of war in the Middle East, the Caribbean is experiencing significant repercussions, notably soaring food prices linked to disrupted global trade and energy supply challenges, according to UN researchers. The region’s heavy reliance on imported food makes it particularly vulnerable as crude oil prices exceed $114 per barrel, alongside rising shipping expenses and delivery delays. These factors are intensifying cost pressures on food, electricity, and transportation, straining household budgets—especially among low-income communities, the UN World Food Programme highlights.
In parallel, the UN World Meteorological Organization indicates a 61% probability of an El Niño event developing by mid-2026. Historically, El Niño conditions have brought extreme weather, such as heatwaves, drought, and crop failures, to Caribbean countries including Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago. Preparations for potential drought are underway in Belize, while farmers across the region express concern about declining rainfall and rising temperatures reducing harvests.
Food insecurity remains elevated in the Caribbean, with prices having increased between 55 and 60% since 2018, leaving many families struggling. The population is also contending with the lingering effects of recent climate disasters, including Hurricane Beryl in 2024 and Hurricane Melissa in October, which have diminished households' capacity to absorb further economic and environmental shocks. Even small price increases or crop losses could push many into crisis, particularly as food and transport costs occupy a large share of low-income household expenditures.